Momentous developments spearheaded by China’s
dramatic rise, growing Sino-US rivalry, an assertive Russia, and the emergence
of new centers of power in Asia, Africa and Latin America are reshaping the
global geopolitical chessboard. These developments portend the advent of a
multipolar world in place of the bipolar world marked by US-USSR rivalry during
the Cold War and the relatively brief period of US unipolarity after the
disintegration of the Soviet Union.
It is evident that as China and other emerging
economies in Asia catch up with the Western world in terms of economic and
technological strength and military power, the center of gravity of global
geopolitics will shift to Asia.
A study by PricewaterhouseCoopers in 2017
forecast that by 2050 both China and India will be the first and the third
largest economies in the world with the US relegated to second position.
Out of the 32 largest economies in the world, it
is predicted that 12 will be from Asia with a cumulative GDP accounting for
44pc of the world GDP.
With the increase in economic strength, Asian
countries’ military power is also likely to witness rapid growth. It is
expected, for instance, that China’s military expenditure would exceed that of
the US by 2035.
Indo-Pacific region will be the main arena for
competition for global supremacy and regional hegemony, leading to growing
tensions and localized conflicts in the area, especially in the East China and
South China Seas.
The convergence of the interests of the US and
India in containing the expansion of China’s power and influence will
strengthen their strategic partnership pushing Pakistan closer to China to
maintain a strategic balance in South Asia. One can therefore anticipate
growing tensions between China and India, on the one hand, and between India
and Pakistan, on the other. US-China rivalry will also lead to growing
competition between the two countries
Geopolitics is a brutal game played by nations
for power and influence in pursuit of their perceived national interests. In
the modern world, economic strength and scientific and technological
advancement are the most important ingredients of national power and provide
the base for the development of military power.
Unfortunately, Pakistan’s policymakers have often
misunderstood the play of geopolitical forces at the global and regional levels
Our India and Kashmir policies, in particular,
lack realism and suffer from strategic confusion.
It is imperative that we anchor our foreign and
security policies in sound strategic realities at the global and regional
levels. Further, we need to reorient our external policies gradually towards
Asian countries in view of their growing importance. Above all, we must build
up our national power, especially economic and technological strength, instead
of relying on foreign crutches or merely on legal and moral arguments.
Published in Dawn
