Durand
Line Issue between Pakistan & Afghanistan:
·
Sir Henry
Marion Durand of 2nd
Anglo war to have a peaceful border | Rejected by some Afghanis as half of
their family lives in east site i.e Pakistan.
·
Pakistan
Stance: Pakistan’s
Governor General/President Zafar-Ullah-Khan gave opinion that
this land belongs to Pakistan, King Abdul Rehman signed the treaty as
border in 1893, this land belongs to pushtoons (approx. 70% of total pushtoons
belongs to Pakistan)
·
Afghanistan’s
Stance: Started in 1947 as Afghanistan’s King Zahir
Shah refused to recognized the border and Pakistan as the Sovereign state.
Territory till Attock, almost all part of NWFP and FATA belongs to Pushtoon’s
Native land so Durand line is illegitimate and can’t be accepted. This border
represented pushtoons.
PAKISTAN ISSUE:
1.
Porous Border: 1947-2016
As pushtoons families were living in both the
countries so border remain porous with 235 crossing lines, Pakistan did not
take strict implementations but only made checking points.
2.
Loses for Pakistan (Jao Talha HE Is SAD)
1.
Smugglings (5B$-10B$ Goods Annually)
2.
Drug Trafficking (70%-80%
of Global Opium)
3.
Human Trafficking (Children
/ Women)
4.
Afg-Refugees (2.5M then – now become 3.6M)
5.
Jihadis Culture / Extremist element
6.
Indian Insurgency
3.
Border Fencing
Project
Two Fence | March 2016 | 532M $ | Completed: 92% in KPK
and 94% in Baluchistan | 800/1000 forts already built | 235
crossing points reduced to 16 only
Problems
during Fencing:
1.
Village opposition (families
lives on both sides)
2.
Threats from Families
3.
Afghania Opposition (afghania:
who don’t recognize border as international border)
4.
Terrorist Insurgance
5.
Drug Trafficking, Human Trafficking / Mafias
AFGHANISTAN ISSUE:
Afghanistan—A graveyard of Empires (3
empires attacked)
1.
Britishers: attacked in 1847 and WON | 1852 Afghan
attacked Britishers when they raped and hanged a woman on a tree | Only
Survivor – Vice Adm. Sir Ben key
2.
USSR: 1979-1989
3. USA: 2001-2021
History:
1933- Zahir shah - > king | ruled for 40 years
1953- Zahir Shah’s Cousin – Gen Mohammad Daoud
Khan – PM
1973- Daoud khan over throned Zahir shah in a
military coup and Claim himself as a president.
Daoud was backed by USSR and made
Communist state
Saur
Revolution;
Ameen Ullah Hafiz – Supported by USA
form PDPA | Religious Party – All Religious People Involve in it |
They attacked and killed Daoud Khan and his Children by cutting into Pieces.
Someone betrayed from USA and told
USSR that Afghanistan is not in their hands now.
Operation
Storm- 333 / Tajbek Palace Assault:
·
Assassination of
PDP’s General Secretary Hafizullah Amin by Soviet army.
·
It marked the 10
years of Soviet-Afghan war.
·
Deputy PM Babrak
Karmal became PM.
·
2.8million Afghan
fled to Pakistan and 1.5 million to Iran, rest to rural areas coz soviet army
was in urban area.
Global
Jihadist Movement:
US funded Saudi and Saudi Funded
Pakistan to build more than 600 madrasas | Started training in them | but don’t
have enough men-power, so started Global Jihadist Movement against USSR (Kafir
will uprise and Islam will fall if not gather) | Started Maqtaba Al-Khidmat |
First person came : Abdullah Azam | First Student : Osama bin Laden, Second
Student: Al-Zawahiri | even then Muslim were having great fail | then USA aided
them with >500 stringers and >250 Launchers and help them in digging
tunnels to hide and attack | Gulbaddin Hekmatyar was first one to shot down the
Russian helicopter.
Impacts:
USSR knew they could not win | had a
peace agreement in Geneva | Left Afghanistan in FEB 15, 1989 | soon after USSR
left, Afghanistan divided into 70 different tribes fighting each other for
leadership | 14 boys(taalibs) from white mosque came into power when they
rescued and returned the 5 abducted girls to their families | these talibans
spreads to more than 70% Afghanistan within 15 days only.
War on Terror:
19
Al-Qaeda men attacked US | Hijacked 5 private planes | 2 hit World trade
center, 3 hit Pentagon.
PROBLEMS:
Operation enduring freedom:
US bomb carpeted Afghanistan
As Pakistan was helping USA and was part of
NATO, afghanis blame that they are not fighting against kufur so they turned
against Pakistan and started anti-state activities in Pakistan.
Salala Air Base Attack (NATO)
helicopters killed at least 24 security personnel and injured 12 soldiers on a
Pakistani check post in Salala, Pak-Afghan border.
Operation Neptune Spear:
US
attacked a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan and killed Al-Qaeda’s leader Osama
Bin Ladin.
Influx of Terrorist from Afghanistan to Pakistan:
Operation Zarb-e-Azab (2014)
Joint military offensive conducted by
the Pakistan Armed Forces against various militant groups one week after Jinnah
Airport attack & more intensive after APS attack in December 2014.
Diplomatic
relations with good Taliban and bad Taliban:
US Blame game:
Pakistan; NATO ally even though
supporting Taliban.
Taliban-US
Dialogue:
Qatar Dialogue | 2012
Murree Dialogue | 2018 | US requested
to release Mullah Ghani Baradar (held in Pakistani jail)
February Agreement / Doha Agreement |
2020 | Trump; US lost $2.3billion in Afghanistan and the war should end.
Conditions:
1.
Afghanistan land is not allowed to be used by any other.
2.
Timeline of withdrawal.
3.
Political settlement.
4.
Permanent ceasefire.
Cost of War On
Terror:
Over 241,000 lives were lost | US
soldiers- 2448 | Taliban- 69000
US lost $2.3 trillion
Total civilians lost lives 1,41,000 |
Pakistan-85000 ( 30,000 soldiers & 55,000 civilians)
Losses of Pakistan amid WOT:
$126 billion GDP lost | > 84000 were dead |
Pakistan became top 10 fragile country in world | drug trade smuggling |
humanitarian crisis
Problems; Post US Withdrawals:
1.
SIGAR (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan
Reconstruction) report | US arms left behind | Taliban took control of Kabul in
15 days only
2.
Anti-Taliban and Pakistan Bill | 22 Republican of
Congress proposed this bill
3.
US wants and Domestic opposition
4.
Humanitarian crisis | 95% population = food
scarcity | 24million children with no source of food | Earthquake hit
Afghanistan on 22 June 2022
5.
Illegal immigrants in Pakistan went back (TTP)
6.
Terrorism spike
7.
Durand line skirmishes (fighting)
Economic Crisis:
Afghanistan’s total GDP $19 billion
collected by aid | since US left, aid stopped and reserves in US were freeze.
Possible Threats to Pakistan:
1.
Terrorism: TTP & Terrorist faction may rise again
2.
Smuggling & drug trade
3.
Afghanistan land may used against Pakistan again.
(Kulbushun Yadav)
4.
Refugee crisis
5.
Unstable Afghanistan will keep instability in Pakistan
6.
CPEC may be sabotaged
7.
Resettlement of FATA people may not happen
8.
Education of women banned by Taliban (Hamid Karzai is
blaming Pakistan for stopping Afghani girls to go to schools)
9. Reports: India is developing anti-Pakistan agenda through Aid
Taliban 2.0 Policies:
1.
Women education: Taliban
committed but did not released any guidelines or strategies
2.
Grave economic challenges: Taliban
generated revenue from tax and export | not sufficient but positive for
economic stability
3.
Humanitarian crisis: 95% of
people facing food insecurity
4.
ISIK & terrorist attacks (Khorasan): Taliban
unable to counter attack ISIK and terrorist groups
5.
TTP agreement still in limbo: No
agreement between Pakistan and TTP in which Taliban has to be involved
6. Statements about International concerns: Taliban stated they will address terrorist issues in Afghanistan but they also appealed for international aids to avoid humanitarian crisis.
